Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
