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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking upset.

Yet this year's field is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners falling away and recent underperformers rising in unison. Under an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this wild and entertaining season, he's competing with five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the chance to display his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

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